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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a far greater change with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.